Availability simulation is a methodical process used to assess and predict the availability of systems, equipment, or processes under various operational scenarios. It involves using computer models or simulations to simulate the behavior of the system over time, considering factors such as reliability, maintainability, repair times, and operational demands.

Key aspects of availability simulation include:

1. Modeling System Behavior: Developing mathematical or computational models that represent the system’s components, their interactions, and how they degrade or fail over time. We use a Monte Carlo approach which mimics the possible lifetime of the asset over and over.
2. Reliability and Failure Data: We incorporate failure data on component reliability (probability of functioning without failure over time), maintainability as well as estimate the time and resources required to repair or restore (ease and effectiveness of maintenance actions), and when needed we can also provide for variable repair times (time required to restore functionality after a failure).
3. Operational Profiles: Our simulation results define the operational scenarios or profiles that your system will experience, including usage patterns, environmental conditions, spare parts usage, logistic delays, and stress levels.
4. Simulation Execution: Running simulations based on the developed Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) models and input data to predict the system’s availability metrics under different scenarios which we analyze for you including adding redundancy or better quality componentry. This helps in understanding how the system performs over time and identifying potential availability bottlenecks or improvement opportunities.
5. Analysis and Optimization: Analyzing the simulation results to identify critical components or subsystems that affect overall availability the most. This is called the “Importance Factor” and is a focus point of decisions to improve where the biggest bang for your buck is forecasted to rest. Optimization of your maintenance strategies may be proposed to improve system availability, such as adjusting maintenance schedules, enhancing reliability of critical components, or optimizing operational procedures, all of which can be simulated and tested on the desktop.
6. Validation and Verification: Validating the simulation results against real-world data or historical performance to ensure that the model accurately represents the system’s behavior and that the predictions are reliable we compare and contrast the model with your actual performance.

Availability simulation is particularly valuable in industries where downtime or interruptions can have significant consequences, such as mining, manufacturing, transportation, energy production, and telecommunications. By using simulations to sample the effectiveness of the maintenance strategy, organizations can proactively manage and optimize their assets to maximize availability, minimize downtime, and improve overall operational efficiency and demonstrate they are doing so scientifically!